Thursday, February 23, 2012

Is ECRI changing its recession call?

Here's an announcement on the ECRI website.

Will Achuthan back off on the recession call? If he did then surely clients would have heard it first but I haven't heard any leaks from the blogosphere. On the hand hand, it does say "updated outlook".

Stay tuned.



Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

2 comments:

Structuredsettlement said...

The two primary proponents of the view that a new recession is beginning have been ECRI and John Hussman. As of now, we can say that Hussman's own metric invalidates his recession call, and that ECRI's initial recession call was also inaccurate.

While I have great respect for ECRI, when they made their initial recession call in September 2011, I wondered if they had misinterpreted a transient if violent downturn in manufacturing and consumer confidence, due mainly to the debt ceiling debacle and the consequent downgrading of US bonds, for typical short term leading indicators of recession. We can now say that it indeed appears to have been the case.



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Tiho said...

No actually he didn't back off. He doesn't flip flop, being bearish in October and bullish in February... like some others! *rolls eyes*